Date of Award


Document Type

Open Access

Degree Name

Bachelor of Arts



First Advisor

Tomas Dvorak




forecasting, undergraduate, college, academic performance, statistical analysis


This paper examines the Union College system for determining the academic quality of its applicants. Currently, Union College uses five criteria: high school GPA; rank; strength of schedule; quality of high school; and SAT/ACT scores, if available. Using data on about 1600 students, I examine the predictive power of these criteria for the performance of a student at Union. As a measure of performance I use cumulative GPA at Union and whether or not the student is still enrolled in Spring 2011. I find that the five criteria predict about 25% of the variation in GPA at Union. With the exception of high school GPA, none of the criteria predict retention. I find that students who submit their SAT have a higher Union GPA, although once I control for the other four criteria SAT submitters do no better. However, SAT scores predict GPA even after controlling for the other four criteria. Finally, I find that the current weighting of each of the five criteria maximizes the predictive power of the overall rating on student’s GPA at Union.